Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that divided the nation and unleashed disorder, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely split population where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but very few government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators supports unification or the current situation. Both composes two pieces that aim for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and societal data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass identity markers, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the idea that there could be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens claim they favour unification but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid perspectives, he said. "One side will succeed here and somebody will ultimately lose but each side has got something to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
