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Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year honor follows a simple formula. It commonly functions as a type of mea culpa. We regret we got wrong your franchise in our preseason forecasts.

On paper, it's a clear-cut path: the coach who orchestrated the most dramatic resurgence is handed the prize. In practice, it fuels an yearly debate about expectations and whether we're genuinely rewarding superior leadership or just the biggest surprise.

However this year's race is distinctly different. The group of candidates is exceptionally strong. It has been the campaign of turnarounds. The NFL has been unpredictable, with recent division champions fading and recent strugglers improving collectively. During an normal year, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the overwhelming front-runner. Yet in this chaotic and fun season, he's up against multiple other elite coaches.

Here is how the projected ballot should shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors adore QBs. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. If you solve a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach not only fixed his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. In the right system, Williams has been given the chance to display his rare talent. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's prolonged excellence. Under Johnson, Williams has become increasingly confident, far less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the gameplan rather than going rogue. It is an offense built entirely in the coach's vision: a physical run game, a heavy dose of play-action passes and a imaginative passing attack that creates wide receiver receivers consistently. Williams has taken advantage. And when easy reads weren't there, he's been capable to create magic from broken plays.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a defined offensive philosophy. Almost every bet – overhauling the offensive line, highlighting the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a rhythm passer – has paid off. That's rare for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who walked into the building with the level of expectations Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the top name on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no guarantees. Somehow, he has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive genius but the kind of leader that can inject new life into an franchise.

During a typical season, Johnson would be the runaway choice. Yet the current is not a typical season!

Where Johnson's candidacy comes a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears presently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are living on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously unreliable. Coaches can stress ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is sustainable. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defensive work. With a few bounces of the ball, the team would be several wins worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is established for sustained winning. But he falls short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar spot to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time leader who has masterminded a rapid turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest overall ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defense that now ranks number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has excelled at the intangibles stuff, which was not a guarantee following his initial public appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed their staff with the ideal coaching cocktail of youth and experience, Coen hired first-timers. Starting with the leader on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That kind of setup is exciting in theory, but frequently fails in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a new job in real-time. But he has pulled the entire group and all elements into sync.

After an early hot start, there was a chance that the season would go off the rails. A midseason collapse had the Jags stumbling again. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. He did not. Instead, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive answers and started hunting consistent ones. Coen refocused the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's number three seed. Coen gets the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he took over a talented team, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year case has a hinge decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback choice.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a new quarterback and partnering him with an new play-caller could have ended the campaign in October. Rather, it shaped it. Through the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP candidate. He has cooled off since that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, placing him just a single place ahead of peers.

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